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Why BRICS Has Scale—But the United States–Israel Axis Has Structure

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  The Weight of BRICS, and the Absence Within It On paper, BRICS looks like inevitability. Five countries—Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa—together account for more than 40% of the world’s population and roughly a quarter to a third of global output. They span energy exporters and importers, manufacturing powerhouses and commodity giants, democracies and centralized states. In raw arithmetic, this is formidable. It suggests weight, reach, and the possibility of an alternative center of gravity in global affairs. But geopolitics is not governed by arithmetic alone. Because scale aggregates power. Only structure directs it. BRICS possesses the former. It is still building the latter. Trade within the grouping exists, but it is uneven and often mediated through China, creating asymmetry rather than mutual dependence. Financial systems remain fragmented. Currencies differ not just in value, but in trust. Capital does not move seamlessly across members in ...
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After Hasina: When India’s Easiest Neighbour Became Its Most Demanding One

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  There are relationships in geopolitics that are built not on alignment, but on absence of friction. For much of the last decade, the relationship between India and Bangladesh belonged to that rare category. It was not dramatic, not loudly strategic, not constantly renegotiated. It simply worked. Under Sheikh Hasina, the two sides developed a pattern that was quietly consequential. Security cooperation deepened in ways that rarely made headlines but fundamentally altered India’s eastern calculations. Insurgent groups that once found shelter across the border—ULFA factions, elements of the NDFB—were systematically dismantled or pushed out. For India’s northeast, this was not a marginal gain; it was a structural shift in internal security. At the same time, connectivity began to rewire geography itself. Agreements allowed India to use Bangladeshi territory for transit to the northeast, reducing the dependence on the narrow Siliguri Corridor. The reopening of riverine routes an...
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Bengal 2026: The Election That Ended Political Certainty

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  This Was Never Just an Election Every market has a moment when price stops reflecting noise and starts reflecting structure. West Bengal has been approaching that moment for years. What appears, on the surface, to be another electoral cycle is, in reality, something more layered—a slow re-rating of a political system that, for decades, moved within predictable bounds. Power changed hands, but within limits. The architecture held. First the Left, then All India Trinamool Congress under Mamata Banerjee—each, in its time, strong enough to define the contours of the system. Opposition existed, but not as a force capable of altering equilibrium. That condition has shifted. And once a system moves from dominance to contest, outcomes begin to follow a different logic. The Momentum That Rarely Announces Itself The rise of the Bharatiya Janata Party in Bengal has often been described in moments—sharp spikes, visible surges, headline-making gains. But the underlying movem...
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When the UAE Leaves OPEC+: The End of Saudi Oil Supremacy and the Rise of a Fragmented Market

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  A Break That Redefines Power, Not Just Policy If the United Arab Emirates were to step away from OPEC+, it would not look like a rupture. There would be no dramatic collapse. No immediate shock large enough to signal that something foundational had shifted. At first, it would resemble disagreement—over quotas, over capacity, over timing. But beneath that surface, something far more consequential would be unfolding: The oil market would be losing its center. Because OPEC+ has never truly been a rules-based system. It has been a hierarchy—and at the top of that hierarchy has long stood Saudi Arabia. What the UAE would be challenging is not a policy. It is that hierarchy itself. How Saudi Arabia Became the System Saudi Arabia’s power was never simply about producing oil. It was about absorbing imbalance. When prices fell, it cut. When supply tightened, it increased. When others overproduced, it compensated. Over time, this created something rare in commodity ...
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