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Showing posts with the label Energy Geopolitics

When the UAE Leaves OPEC+: The End of Saudi Oil Supremacy and the Rise of a Fragmented Market

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  A Break That Redefines Power, Not Just Policy If the United Arab Emirates were to step away from OPEC+, it would not look like a rupture. There would be no dramatic collapse. No immediate shock large enough to signal that something foundational had shifted. At first, it would resemble disagreement—over quotas, over capacity, over timing. But beneath that surface, something far more consequential would be unfolding: The oil market would be losing its center. Because OPEC+ has never truly been a rules-based system. It has been a hierarchy—and at the top of that hierarchy has long stood Saudi Arabia. What the UAE would be challenging is not a policy. It is that hierarchy itself. How Saudi Arabia Became the System Saudi Arabia’s power was never simply about producing oil. It was about absorbing imbalance. When prices fell, it cut. When supply tightened, it increased. When others overproduced, it compensated. Over time, this created something rare in commodity ...

Before the Shadow Fleet: The System It Was Built to Escape

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The Story of the Dollar, London, and the Architecture of Control The World Doesn’t Run on Oil. It Runs on Permission. We think oil powers the world. But oil does not move on its own. It moves when systems allow it to move. And those systems were not created accidentally. They were built—piece by piece—over decades, by countries and institutions that understood something fundamental: Control the system, and you don’t need to control the world directly. You can shape it. How the Dollar Became the World’s Oil Currency This story does not begin with oil. It begins with war. After World War II, much of the global economy was broken. Europe was devastated. Trade systems were unstable. Currencies were unreliable. One country emerged with something others did not have: Stability. The United States. At a conference called the Bretton Woods Conference, a new global financial system was designed. The idea was simple: Currencies would be linked to the US ...